Sunday, September 19, 2004

Post Script to Iraq

I've gotten some e-mail saying that I advocate a pull out of Iraq. That is simply not the case. I just bring up the possibility of pulling out as a worse than last ditch option. If the US military withdraws, we have to look at the pros and cons.

Were we to pull out, we'd save the lives of our soldiers. That is a good thing, no doubt. But beyond that, the IIG (Interim Iraqi Govenment) would collaspe within days. There would be a civil war that kills thousands, and most likely a massive genocide as well. Now, onto the bad part, without our sercurity force in place, the al Qaeda cells in the Sunni Triangle and in Kurdistan (Ansar al-Islam) could merge and come to power. An al Qaeda member like Zarqawi or AQ sympatheizer (probably the most likely) in control of Iraq would be maltitudes worse for our national sercurity than Saddam Hussein was.

When we left Saigon in April of '75, we knew that although the South would fall, we wouldn't be directly threatened by a united Communist Vietnam. Iraq could conceivably become worse than Taliban Afghanistan, as there is billions of dollars worth of oil money that could effectively be used to spearhead a new global Jihadist movement against the West. Dire indeed. I hope I'm very wrong about that.

But what about the immediate future? There are elections in January and if the violence continues, the UN could either postpone it indefinitely or rule it illegimate. Say we do stop the bombings and beheadings and pacify Fallujah, Ramadi and Sammara, and elections take place on schedule. The Sunni Triangle and the Al Anbar province make up much of the Iraqi electorate, so the chance that an anti-American Islamist winning certainly has a big possibility of coming true. What do we do if that happens? We can't kick the guy off the ballot as it would totally discredit our democracy imperative and allow everyone to say we just want to install a US-friendly puppet.

I have a question for you: If that situation presents itself, would it be better to let the Islamist win or rig the ballot so that only friendly people are on it?