Did Bush Really Win the Debate?

That's what Juan A. Hervada says. He bases that assertion around this Gallup poll and I think it's an extremely sound analysis. It causes me to view the debate in a new light.

I think that George W. Bush won the debate, if by winning we mean that he got closer to re-election; symmetrically, I believe Kerry lost because he didn’t get any closer to victory on November 2, far from it.

In fact, the numbers do seem to correspond with this. You must read the rest.

UPDATE: Newsweek begs to differ with Juan's analysis. (via Andrew Sullivan)

In fact, Kerry’s numbers have improved across the board, while Bush’s vulnerabilities have become more pronounced. The senator is seen as more intelligent and well-informed (80 percent, up six points over last month, compared to Bush’s steady 59 percent); as having strong leadership skills (56 percent, also up 6 points, but still less than Bush’s 62 percent) and as someone who can be trusted to make the right calls in an international crisis (51 percent, up five points and tied with Bush). Meanwhile, Bush's approval ratings have dropped to below the halfway mark (46 percent) for the first time since the GOP convention in late August.

Who's right? Time will tell.